England schools may have to close due to low pupil numbers

The Education Policy Institute (EPI) think tank has said that due to demographic changes some schools may have to implement mergers, consider cost-cutting measures or just close entirely.

Pupil numbers are projected to fall the most in London and the North East of England, according to the analysis.

Researchers used data from pupil projections and the think tank’s own school funding model to analyse the potential impacts on school funding up to 2030, the PA news agency reported.

The number of pupils in nursery and primary schools in England is predicted to decrease as the 2020s continue (Image: PA Wire)

Under a scenario where all schools receive a 0.5% real terms increase in pupil-led per-pupil funding each year, researchers predict that overall funding for primary and secondary state schools will fall to £41.6 billion by 2029/30, down from a peak of £42.7 billion in 2024/25.

Some areas of England likely to be affected more than others

The issue of a population bulge in England has been moving from primary schools into secondary schools.

London in particular has seen the number of applications for places at primary schools drop in the last year due to a falling birth rate, as well as families leaving the city after the pandemic and Brexit.

The EPI report commented that reductions in class sizes "do not bring about proportional decreases" in other costs such as for educational supplies and staffing.

A reduction in class sizes will not necessarily mean a reduction in costs, the EPI has said (Image: PA)

It added: “Faced with this challenge, some of the most severely affected schools will struggle to stay viable. As these schools feel the squeeze, they will be forced to consider alternatives: mergers with other schools, difficult cost-cutting measures, and ultimately school closures.”

The think tank has called on policymakers to “carefully consider” the impacts of changes to the national funding formula (NFF) on schools that are most affected by falling pupil numbers.

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In response to the report, a Department for Education spokesperson said: “These figures are speculative, funding levels beyond 2024/25 have not yet been confirmed and are subject to future spending reviews.

“We are increasing school funding to £60.7 billion next year, the highest level ever in real terms per pupil.

“Every school will receive a per-pupil increase in funding, and the national funding formula (NFF) makes sure that funding is distributed fairly based on the needs of each school and their pupils."